Analyze Aaron Rodgers's matchup for week 10
Rodgers has been surgically efficient IRL, but Arthur Smith’s run-heavy scheme and his own lack of rushing/deep-ball volume keep his fantasy ceiling low; the banged-up Chargers won’t force Pittsburgh to air it out, making Rodgers a mid-range QB2 you should leave on benches.
Los Angeles’ pass rush is down to backups after losing Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, yet the Chargers still bleed sacks (29, 5th-most) and big plays. Pittsburgh’s defense should dominate, keeping game script conservative. Rodgers’ 68.6% completion rate and 73% red-zone TD conversion show real-world mastery, but only seven 20-plus-air-yard completions all year caps upside. Expect 220-240 yards, 1-2 TDs, zero rush yards—solid for Steelers wins, mediocre for fantasy.
Upward arrow: 14 TD, 5 INT, 105.0 rating over last six; three straight multi-TD games, zero 10-yard rushes, weekly QB finish never better than 10th.
The stat profile screams game-manager rather than league-winner. Arthur Smith’s offense ranks bottom-five in neutral-situation pass rate, instead leaning on a resurgent Najee Harris and jet-sweep misdirection. Rodgers’ 8.1% touchdown rate is career-best territory, yet it’s buoyed by extreme red-zone efficiency—once inside the 20 he’s throwing to schemed rubs and TE pop passes, not volume-dependent vertical shots. With the Steelers likely playing with a lead, expect another 28-32 attempt outing, far below the 38-40 you need for a ceiling week.
From a defensive lens, the Chargers’ secondary is healthier than their O-line, but their inability to sustain drives puts stress on a gassed defense late. Pittsburgh can nickel-and-dime to 24 points without ever targeting downfield, keeping Rodgers’ yardage modest. His lack of rushing chops removes the 8-12 cheap fantasy points that separate QB1 from QB2 territory, and the Steelers’ defense/special-teams scores could further suppress passing scripts.
Bottom line: start Rodgers only in two-QB or superflex leagues where a safe 15-point floor matters. In standard 12-team formats you can stream options like Purdy, Levis, or even a returning Tua that offer both higher ceilings and comparable floors. He’s a phenomenal real-world story, but for fantasy he’s a sit in Week 10.