Analyze Aaron Jones's matchup for week 10
Aaron Jones is nursing a shoulder injury and has averaged only 3.4 YPC since returning; the Eagles’ run defense is stout, the Vikings project to trail, and Jordan Mason is siphoning work, making Jones a low-floor, low-ceiling SIT even if active.
Philadelphia allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to RBs and ranks as a pass-funnel defense, so a run-heavy script is unlikely. With the Vikings 8-point underdogs, game flow should push the offense toward Sam Darnold’s arm, capping Jones’ touch total and eliminating goal-line opportunities. Add in a shoulder that can be re-aggravated on any hit and a backfield that has morphed into a 50/50 committee with the more efficient Jordan Mason, and this is one of the worst possible spots for a declining 30-year-old back.
Since missing four games with a hamstring, Jones has logged 53% of the snaps and produced 30 scoreless yards on nine touches in Week 8 while being out-rushed by Mason 4.4 YPC to 3.4 YPC.
The underlying metrics paint a bleak picture for a player whose elite receiving upside once propped up his fantasy value. Jones is averaging a career-worst 3.4 yards per carry behind PFF’s 25th-graded run-blocking offensive line, forcing only three missed tackles on 31 attempts, and his 0.93 yards before contact per rush rank in the 18th percentile among qualified backs. The shoulder injury compounds efficiency issues; AC joint sprains limit a runner’s ability to fall forward through contact and protect the football, critical against an Eagles front that ranks top-five in stuff rate and power success allowed. Even in negative game scripts that once funneled targets his way, Jones has ceded third-down and two-minute work to Ty Chandler at times, and Mason’s emergence as the preferred early-down grinder caps red-zone opportunity. Philadelphia’s linebacker duo of Nakobe Dean and Zack Baun has held opposing backs to -12.8% rushing success rate (third-best), and the Eagles’ 39.5% man-coverage rate dares Minnesota’s shaky quarterback to beat them through the air, further shrinking the running-back pie. Finally, age-related decline is evident: Jones’ 2.3 yards after contact per attempt is nearly a full yard below his 2021 peak, and his 10.3% breakaway run rate is half his career mark. In a week where healthier, role-secure backs like Devin Singletary, Kareem Hunt, and Tyjae Spears are widely available on waivers, plugging in Jones amounts to chasing 2019 memories rather than processing 2024 reality. Unless your league starts three running backs or you’re staring at multiple byes, keep him on the bench and monitor practice reports to see if he even suits up.